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Every complex problem has an answer that is clear simple and wrong

From my recent conversations with leaders in peer group coaching circles and my own experience I understand that increasing complexity is one of the main leadership challenges today.

Complexity is characterized by “unknown unknowns” – situations where cause and effect relationships are not observable or predictable in advance but can only be understood retrospectively through hindsight.

Think for example about the introduction of multidisciplinary case management for patients with complex needs, such as those with both cancer and neurodegenerative conditions. Here, outcomes are not predictable, so stakeholders need to rely on continuous experimentation and dialogue. Solutions emerge through the collaborative efforts of clinicians, researchers, and case managers who use structured sense-making to adapt treatment plans dynamically.

This requires leaders with:

  • strong collaboration skills,
  • willingness to learn from mistakes,
  • adaptability and personal stability to cope with setbacks

and an organisational culture that provides:

  • space for reflection and exploration
  • an environment of psychological safety.

Here is a framework that may help navigate decision making in potentially complex situations.

Image

The Cynefin Framework: Understand the nature of the problem and act accordingly!

The Cynefin framework is a practical leadership tool that helps decision-makers make sense of uncertainty by categorizing problems into five domains:

  • Clear
  • Complicated
  • Complex
  • Chaotic
  • Disorder

Each domain guides leaders to choose context-appropriate strategies, from following best practices in predictable situations to experimenting and adapting in unpredictable environments. By mapping challenges to these domains, leaders improve their ability to respond effectively and foster resilient, innovative organizations.

Here is a link to a Youtube Video where the inventor Dave Snowden explains more: https://youtu.be/N7oz366X0-8

I am really curious to learn whether anyone of you is working with this framework – please e-mail me to let me know

Image: Kempermann, G. (2017). Cynefin as reference framework to facilitate insight and decision-making in complex contexts of biomedical research. Frontiers in neuroscience, 11, 634.

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